Daily Briefings

EURUSD Eyeing US, EU PMI Data – European Turmoil in Focus


Never miss a story from Dimitri Zabelin

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications

Please enter valid First Name

Please fill out this field.

Please enter valid Last Name

Please fill out this field.

Please enter valid email

Please fill out this field.

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don’t just read our analysis – put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We’ll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.

Please try again later.


  • EURUSD may find itself oscillating between US, EU PMI data
  • Who will be the head of the ECB, EU Commission and Council?
  • Eurozone debt crisis risks continue to escalate with Italy budget

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

EURUSD will be eyeing the release of a slew of US and European PMI data publications as both powerhouses show ever-increasing weakness. The ECB’s recent meeting in Sintra, Portugal revealed that officials are ready to cut rates and re-introduce QE if economic conditions warrant such an action. The Fed struck a cautiously more dovish tone at the most recent meeting with more policymakers noe broadly tilting towards two cuts by year-end.

In both the Eurozone and US, economic data has been tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations – particularly the latter. It will therefore be of little surprise if today’s PMI data falls in line with this trend which may in turn strengthen the case of doves. Both economies are also suffering from a plight of political uncertainty that is yet another weight which continues to pressure markets.

In the US, the upcoming G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan will be a key event to monitor because it is also when US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to meet and have “extended” talks on trade. Washington’s unpredictable political maneuvers in the trade war have repeatedly caught markets off-guard and caused severe volatility. With the 2020 election coming up, Trump’s tactics may change.

Want to learn about how to trade political risk? Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri.

In Europe, the battle of the budgets between Rome and Brussels continues with the dreaded Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) now looming over the horizon. The spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields remains over 100 percent higher than they were 14 months ago. This may widen as Eurozone debt crisis concerns mount in light of the news that the Italian economy may suffer a contraction in Q2.

Furthermore, policymakers are divided on who to elect to reign over key European institutions. These include the ECB, European Council (EC) and European Commission. On June 20, Council President Donald Tusk announced a new summit to take place on June 30 since no consensus was reached on a particular candidate. Commission President Jean-Claude Junker warned that efforts to reach an agreement will be “tough”.


After breaching an 18-month resistance, EURUSD retreated but was then provide a tailwind from the FOMC meeting, prompting causing the pair to retest the previous breakout. General US Dollar weakness was the primary driving force rather than a sudden influx of capital into the Euro. However, if regional and global risks escalate, a premium may be put on liquidity, and investors may then start flocking to the US Dollar, consequently pushing EURUSD lower.


Chart Showing EURUSD, Dollar Index


— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

Gold Prices Surge to 6-Year High But Gains May Be Fleeting

Previous article

US Dollar Sell-Off Pauses at Key Support – Can Bears Break Through?

Next article

You may also like


Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *